Stations Upgrade Project – Quantitative Risk Assessment

Client: Sydney Trains
Location: Sydney Metropolitan
Duration: May – July 2016
Project Value: $100 million

The Sydney Trains Future Network Growth program of works is made up of nine initiatives (or projects) that were established to support future growth in the Sydney rail network. This includes increased train services across the metropolitan heavy rail network and increased customer patronage across the network.

Following the completion of the Business Case in 2015, Sydney Trains procured three Supplier Teams to undertake a design options assessment to develop the high level scope and functional requirements into a recommended concept design for each station.

InfraSol Group was engaged by Sydney Trains to undertake a quantitative risk assessment for the Stations Upgrade Project to establish the risk allowance for the project.

The review incorporated a project risk review, a critical review of project cost advice provided by Sydney Trains, and a quantitative risk assessment of the base estimate.

The review included an assessment of contingent and inherent project risks. Both parameters were informed by a critical review of the base estimates for each station and via a facilitated risk workshop and
scope definition workshop.

The quantitative risk inputs were modelled using Monte Carlo Simulation, utilising @Risk software.

Project estimates were prepared for the P50 and P90 confidence levels for ‘Total Outturn Cost’ (TOC) for the draft mandatory scope for the project, including Sydney Trains’ costs to deliver the project.

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Key Outcomes

Quantitative risk assessment
Established the risk allowance
Design options assessment

Stations Upgrade Project – Quantitative Risk Assessment

Key Outcomes

Quantitative risk assessment

Established the risk allowance

Design options assessment